UHERO issued its Construction Forecast on March 16, 2012. The public summary of the forecast is available here. A summary of the summary is this: the recovery did not happen in 2011, but it appears it may happen in 2012 for a few reasons. First, public construction did not happen in 2011. For whatever reason, public sector spending was only $431 million, but is expected to be more than double that amount in 4 of the next 5 years. This is excluding rail. Second, there is a lot of private permitting going on. Key line from the forecast: "The total value of real non-residential permits will jump more than 40% this year, to more than $1.6 billion and will sustain a similar level of activity through mid-decade. This is roughly in line with the level of permitting in 2005-2006 and represents a significant increase over last year's forecast." Third: rail. If the rail project survives legal challenges and the challenge of the anti-rail sentiment fueling former Governor Cayetano's mayoral campaign, rail related contracts will begin to flourish. Two big and continued risks include the current price of oil and the possibility that the rail project will not go forward. One risk not discussed in the summary is the question of continued military spending in the islands. This was discussed in an earlier post and the general consensus on the issue appears to be that the immediate future of military spending is unclear. Draconian cuts to the defense budget that were part of the budget deal cut in Congress at the end of the budget fiasco at the end of 2011, are set to kick in unless the two parties find a way to reach a compromise. For now, the game of chicken continues, but it does not seem likely that in an election year, either party's representatives would be anxious to explain the pain that will be felt by their constituents should they fail to find some way out of the morass. Thus, the defense budget cuts that may drastically affect Hawaii's military spending budget are still (as of now) hypothetical. We can only hope that they remain that way.
Submitted by Anna H. Oshiro